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Title: Replication data for: Online Polls and Registration-Based Sampling: A New Method for Pre-election Polling      
dateReleased:
10-02-2014
downloadURL: http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/22908
ID:
doi:10.7910/DVN/22908
description:
This paper outlines a new method for surveys to study elections and voter attitudes. Pre-election surveys often suffer from an inability to identify and survey the likely electorate for the upcoming election. We propose a new and inexpensive method to conduct representative surveys of the electorate. We demonstrate the performance of our method in producing a representative sample of the future electorate that can be used to study campaign dynamics and many other issues. We compare pre-election outcome forecasts to election outcomes in seven primary and general election surveys conducted prior to the 2008 and 2010 primary and general elections in three states. The results indicate the methodology produces representative samples, including in low-turnout elections such as primaries where traditional methods have difficulty consistently sampling the electorate. This new methodology combines Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) sampling, mailed invitation letters, and online administration of the questionnaire. The PPS sample is drawn based on a model employing variables from the publicly available voter file to produce a probability of voting score for each individual voter. The proposed method provides researchers a valuable tool to study the attitudes of the voting public.
description:
Barber, Michael; Mann, Christopher; Monson, J. Quin; Patterson, Kelly, 2014, "Replication data for: Online Polls and Registration-Based Sampling: A New Method for Pre-election Polling", http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/22908, Harvard Dataverse, V2
name:
Barber, Michael
Mann, Christopher
Monson, J. Quin
Patterson, Kelly
homePage: http://www.harvard.edu/
name:
Harvard University
ID:
SCR:011273
abbreviation:
DataVerse
homePage: http://thedata.org/
name:
Dataverse Network Project
ID:
SCR:001997