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Title: Replication data for: Forecasts of the 2012 U.S. presidential election based on candidates’ perceived competence in handling the most important issue      
dateReleased:
11-04-2014
downloadURL: http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/22949
ID:
doi:10.7910/DVN/22949
description:
The Big-Issue Model predicts election outcomes based on voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle the most important issue. The model provided accurate forecasts of the 2012 U.S. presidential election. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the model in situations where one issue clearly dominates the campaign, such as the state of the economy in the 2012 election. In addition, the model is particularly valuable if economic fundamentals disagree, a situation in which forecasts from traditional political economy models suggest high uncertainty. The model provides immediate feedback to political candidates and parties on the success of their campaign and can advise them on which issues to assign the highest priority.
description:
Graefe, Andreas; Armstrong, J. Scott, 2014, "Replication data for: Forecasts of the 2012 U.S. presidential election based on candidates’ perceived competence in handling the most important issue", http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/22949, Harvard Dataverse, V1
name:
Graefe, Andreas
Armstrong, J. Scott
homePage: http://www.harvard.edu/
name:
Harvard University
ID:
SCR:011273
abbreviation:
DataVerse
homePage: http://thedata.org/
name:
Dataverse Network Project
ID:
SCR:001997