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Title: Regime-Dependent Recession Forecasts and the 2001 Recession      
dateReleased:
04-08-2015
downloadURL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01272.v1
ID:
doi:10.3886/ICPSR01272.v1
description:
Business recessions are notoriously hard to predict accurately, hence the quip that economists have predicted eight of the last five recessions. This article derives a six-month-ahead recession signal that reduces the number of false signals outside of recession, without impairing the ability to signal the recessions that occur. In terms of predicting the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions out of sample, the new recession signal, like other signals, largely misses the 1990-1991 recession with its six-month-ahead forecasts. In contrast, a recession onset in April or May 2001 was predicted six months ahead of the 2001 recession, which is close to the actual turning point of March 2001.
description:
Dueker, Michael J., 2015, "Regime-Dependent Recession Forecasts and the 2001 Recession", http://dx.doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01272.v1
name:
Dueker, Michael J.
homePage: http://www.harvard.edu/
name:
Harvard University
ID:
SCR:011273
abbreviation:
DataVerse
homePage: http://thedata.org/
name:
Dataverse Network Project
ID:
SCR:001997